Knowledge Bank

Leveraging the computational power of modern computer systems to give the war fighter the edge is pivotal to the completion of Objective 1 of the USAF's 2030 R&D strategy. The Advanced Framework for Simulation, Integration, and Modeling (AFSIM) simulates the varying levels of complexity that are necessary for a complete wargaming system. Evaluating the outputs of each scenario simulated by AFSIM is of critical importance to an operating analyst. A methodology of quantifying risk independently of its contingent components by their position in space and position with a state-space is proposed. The subsequent testing was performed to determine the viability of AFSIM to provide the necessary component information for the evaluation of positional data. An integrated air defense (IAD) scenario was created to be analyzed. A convergence study was performed to provide information on both the ability of the simulator as well as the balance to strike between computational time and the resolution of data. The initial conditions of the approaching units were rotated about the simulation to provide positional data points for the parameter of interest, death. The subsequent data was combined and plotted as absolute, or map position. Also, in the forms of a probability density function, and scope view. Analysis was performed to draw out directional and distance probabilities of interest. Data was also plotted against various moving units within the simulation to demonstrate capabilities of positional data to draw conclusions. Through proving AFSIMs capabilities to generate enough data to adequately assess the risk of a scenario, methods for which an operator can analyze the positional data is demonstrated.