Debiasing the Hot Hand
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Date
2012-12
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Publisher
The Ohio State University
Abstract
Gilovich et al. (1985) found the presence of the hot hand belief in basketball. Since then, it has been found in many other sporting domains. However, to date, there have been no published successful debiasing techniques. The current study will attempt to replicate Gilovich et al.’s results as well as provide a simple yet successful debiasing technique involving base rates (season shooting percentages). We found evidence against the presence of the hot hand but found the relevance of base rate information.
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Keywords
hot hand, gambler's fallacy, sequences, base rate