Growth, Decline, Rebirth: Quantifying Regional and Local Outcomes in the Midwest Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), 1970-2010
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Date
2021-05
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The Ohio State University
Abstract
Ignoring the multiple county context of cities is a failure of U.S. planning. The Midwest as a region has faced significant change over the past fifty years. This study aims to analyze data at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in the Midwest from 1970 to 2010 to better understand patterns of regional and local change. Focusing on these two levels of analysis will provide more comprehensive regional understanding and inform local planning decisions.
To accomplish this goal, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed on two datasets: one from 1970 and a second from 2010. The number of components generated, composition of components, and component scores for different MSAs were analyzed. The data revealed that the Midwest region became more homogenous between the two time periods, but individual MSAs experienced great change.
These results suggest a more nuanced policy approach for local officials and planners as well as reconsidering specialization practices in economic development. Future areas of research include expanding the geographic scale of this type of analysis, utilizing cluster analysis to group MSAs, and constructing an MSA performance index.
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Keywords
Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Midwest, region, change