Szacowanie i kontrolowanie wpływu ośrodka badawczego w analizach dynamiki nastrojów społecznych
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Date
1996
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IFiS Publishers
Abstract
Seven public opinion indices which hod been measured in parallel in representative
samples by at least two public opinion centres for at least 12 months were
selected from a pool of findings of public opinion studies conducted in Poland after
1990. Similarity of the values of indices measured at the same point in time and
similarity of the dynamics of these values were determined. A high degree of similarity
was found, thus confirming the reliability of the indices and trustworthiness of
the polling centres. Different polling stations obtained similar index values but their
estimates of change were contaminated by a greater level of error. Analysis of
variance, with the values of the indices as dependent variable and time of assessment
and polling firm as independent variables, revealed significant and systematic
differences between the findings of the different firms. Analysis of variance
for a research programme realized simultaneously by two firms (identical research
instruments, equivalent samples, similar time of realization) confirmed the existence
of systematic differences in the findings ("polling firm effect"). The fact that
such a "polling firm effect" was found justifies the need to conduct parallel opinion
polls in those cases when the diagnosis is particularly important as well as the
need to apply statistical techniques facilitating the control of differences due to
the "polling firm effect".
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Citation
Ask: Research and Methods. Volume 3, Issue 1 (1996), pp. 55-70