Does getting sick keep cattle healthy?
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Date
2017-05
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The Ohio State University
Abstract
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an infectious, viral disease that impacts livestock worldwide. The disease is endemic in many countries, and outbreaks have had major economic impact, including the United Kingdom in 2001 (Knight-Jones and Rushton 2013). FMD is a major hindrance to the international trade of livestock and has forced countries to spend billions of dollars in prevention and control (Knight-Jones and Rushton 2013). The virus that causes FMD has 7 serotypes and many subtypes, with little vaccine efficacy between these serotypes (Waldmann and Trautwein 1926; Brooksby and Rogers 1957; Brooksby 1958; Jamal and Belsham 2013). However, in settings where multiple serotypes of FMD circulate regularly (endemic settings), infections with one type may prevent future disease through cross-immunity. As countries progress in their efforts to eradicate the disease, initially, we may see more FMD due to loss of this cross-immunity (Grenfell and Harwood 1997). This research poses the question: Could cross-immunity between FMD serotypes prevent FMD in endemic settings? To answer this question, we conducted in silico experiments with an agent-based modeling program called NetLogo in order to direct different simulations for cattle herds infected with two different serotypes of FMD: O and A. Another model was created to match the simulated infectiousness between herds to empirical data on infected cattle, and the results from this model were then applied to the herd model. We constructed and extensively checked the herd simulation method and ran simulations to test the effects of different levels of cross-immunity in the population. The results were analyzed to determine whether and how much cross-immunity might prevent transmission in endemic populations. From my simulation runs, we concluded that cross-immunity would not prevent FMD infections.
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Keywords
Foot and mouth disease, cross-immunity, cattle, Cameroon