Determining the Effect of Host Movement and Vaccination Timing on Rabies Spread using Spatial Models of Infectious Disease Dynamics
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Date
2015-05
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The Ohio State University
Abstract
Rabies is a fatal disease which can affect a variety of animals as well as people. Although rabies cases in the U.S. are rare, treatment for rabies is expensive which places a large burden on public health systems. Adding to this burden, treatment is necessary for all those individuals who are only suspected of having come into contact with the disease. Therefore it is important to understand the disease dynamics of rabies in host population so it can be controlled. Our study seeks to understand how different factors affect the spread of rabies specifically in the raccoon population of Ohio in order to better control the disease. Ohio is the western front of the westward expansion of raccoon rabies virus (RRV) variant. Thus, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) implemented an oral rabies vaccination (ORV) campaign in Ohio, which is designed to control the raccoon rabies virus (RRV) variant. However, it is unknown how factors such as raccoon movement and heterogeneous mixing of the host population affect the vaccination effort.
To understand how these factors affect the spread of RRV, we designed two mathematical models. The first model allows the population to mix homogeneously. The second model is a spatial model which allows heterogeneous mixing of individuals within the population. This model allows movement based upon distance equation where individuals mix less with those who are located farther away. After each model has been run we can compare our results to data provided by the USDA to determine which model has a higher likelihood. The results of our study have broader implications for infectious diseases transmitted through direct contact similarly to rabies. By understanding which factors drive the spread of rabies and how the control measures operate within the system, we can develop a framework to quantify and determine transmission drivers for all infectious diseases spread through direct contact.
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Keywords
raccoon rabies virus, mathematical models, vaccination program, host movement