The East Asian Power Transition: Prospects for Peace

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Ohio State University. Mershon Center for International Security Studies

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After near forty years of economic, technological and military modernization and increased Chinese defense spending, the rise of Chinese military capabilities has reached a critical stage for the U.S.-China power transition and the prospects for continued East Asia stability. The narrowing gap between U.S. and Chinese capabilities has elicited fundamental changes in U.S. regional strategy and the near-term trajectory in defense spending and relative capabilities suggests the likelihood of heightened security tension associated with great power transition dynamics. In addition, as the U.S.-China power transition evolves, the distinct geopolitical characteristics of the East Asian theater will have implications for the prospects for war and peace, These developing strategic trends have the potential to interact with destabilizing domestic political trends in both China and the United States, thus exacerbating great power conflict.


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peace, power, politics, Asia