Predicting Boko Haram's Impact on the Logone Floodplain in Cameroon: an Agent-Based Simulation Approach

Abstract

This study investigates the indirect impacts of Boko Haram on the Logone floodplain in the Far North Region of Cameroon. While the direct threat of Boko Haram attacks remains low on the Logone floodplain, residents face new economic pressures related to the disruption of the Northeast Nigerian economy and increased military activity in the region. This study aims to quantify the magnitude of these economic impacts on floodplain residents; identify which groups are most vulnerable to the current crisis; and determine whether or not the short-term disruption facilitated by Boko Haram could precipitate long-term changes to social and economic trends on the floodplain. In order to answer these questions, I present an agent-based model that simulates the economic and demographic behaviors of households on the floodplain. After testing the effects of nine different economic crises on the floodplain model, I conclude that the floodplain system is resilient to the short-term economic disturbance caused by Boko Haram. The simulations also provide valuable insights about the relative vulnerability of different household sub-populations, the possible short-term effects of the crisis, and the effect of family size on changes in household wealth.