MetadataShow full item record
Series/Report no.:2012 Edward F. Hayes Graduate Research Forum. 26th
Studies of nuclear proliferation and of its impact in the international system find that once countries acquire nuclear weapons, they start behaving differently: they are involved in more low level disputes (Rauchhaus, 2009), they prevail in crises (Beardsley and Asal, 2009) and their diplomatic status increases (Gartzke and Jo, 2009). While a lot of these studies focus on the effects of horizontal proliferation, that is, the increase in the number of states that acquire the weapon, most of the strategic action happens before states conduct their first nuclear weapon test. At which stage of their nuclear weapon acquisition do states become more aggressive? I analyze event data on the weekly interactions between rivals when at least one member is in the process of acquiring nuclear weapons. I test for the presence of structural breaks that determine different levels of instability within a specific relation. My preliminary findings show that, while relations with a proliferating state might get bumpy at times, they do so mostly at earlier stages of the weapon acquisition process.
Poster Division: Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences: 1st Place (The Ohio State University Edward F. Hayes Graduate Research Forum)