Impact of Census Error Adjustments of State Population Projections: The Case of Ohio
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Citation:The Ohio Journal of Science. v89, n1 (March, 1989), 26-32
Census enumeration errors affect local, state and national level population projections. It has long been a practice to produce projections that reflect adjustments for net census undercount errors. Unfortunately, the Ohio Data Users Center (ODUC), like other state demographic centers, has had little knowledge of the effect of adjustments because undercount adjustment factors for 1980 had not been officially released by the Bureau of the Census as of 1987. We have obtained information on 1980 undercount factors and used them to develop an adjusted projection for Ohio. Thus, we examine the effect of using 1980 national undercount adjustment factors in preparing Ohio population projections by comparing projections based on 1980 undercount adjustment factors to projections based on no adjustment. We also examine the effect of using 1970 national undercount adjustments by comparing the projections based on these adjustments to projections based on no adjustment. The findings suggest that decisions concerning adjustment factors have varying effects on short-term, long-term, and strategic forecasting. These effects are particularly salient for selected age-groups and the impact on state government budget decisions typically associated with these age-groups. We recommend that the effects of alternative adjustment possibilities be examined by state demographic centers and budget offices.
Author Institution: Department of Sociology, Pacific Lutheran University; Department of Sociology, Bowling Green State University; Ohio Data Users Center, Ohio Department of Development
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