A Markovian Analysis of Ethnic Transition: St. Clair Neighborhood in Cleveland, Ohio

Abstract

This paper suggests the use of Markovian chain analysis to utilize the data from the United States Census to predict the change of ethnic composition of an areal unit. A method for estimation of the transition matrix is proposed. Computations for the St. Clair neighborhood in Cleveland, Ohio, predict an actual increase in Yugoslavian occupance for the year 2000 when 52% of the neighborhood will probably consist of foreign European stock. This remarkable neighborhood, that has provided a gateway for South Slavs for more than a century, will probably continue as an entry point well into the 21st century.