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Could Humphrey Have Gone to China? Measuring the Electoral Costs and Benefits of Making Peace

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1811/31836

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schultz-kbdirect.htm 520bytes HTML View/Open Streaming audio
Kenneth Schultz 10-5-04.pdf 131.4Kb PDF View/Open Event webpage
Kenneth Schultz presentation.pdf 129.3Kb PDF View/Open Presentation slides

dc.creator Schultz, Kenneth
dc.date.accessioned 2008-03-14T20:37:27Z
dc.date.available 2008-03-14T20:37:27Z
dc.date.issued 2004-10-05
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1811/31836
dc.description Streaming audio requires RealPlayer. en_US
dc.description The University Archives has determined that this item is of continuing value to OSU's history. en_US
dc.description.abstract Theoretical arguments for why “it takes a Nixon to go to China” emphasize either the superior credibility that hawks have in advocating peace or the superior political benefits they enjoy in doing so. This paper looks for evidence of these effects in the canonical case: that of U.S. rapprochement with China in the early 1970s. I use counterfactual simulations on data from the 1968 National Election Study to explore the political effects of a proposal to open relations with China, focusing on whether and how those effects would depend on who made the proposal: Richard Nixon or Hubert Humphrey. I find evidence of both the credibility and electoral security effects hypothesized in the theoretical literature. In particular, there is a very dramatic asymmetry in the political costs and benefits of proposing peace: while such a proposal would have been electorally costly for Humphrey, it could have been an electoral boon for Nixon. en_US
dc.description.sponsorship Ohio State University. Mershon Center for International Security Studies en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Event webpage, presentation slides, streaming audio en_US
dc.format.extent Audio Duration: 01:05:33 en_US
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher Ohio State University. Mershon Center for International Security Studies en_US
dc.subject China en_US
dc.subject peace en_US
dc.title Could Humphrey Have Gone to China? Measuring the Electoral Costs and Benefits of Making Peace en_US
dc.type Presentation en_US
dc.type Recording, oral en_US
dc.type Other en_US